Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin decided the 2024 presidential election. In 2026 they choose six governors and three U.S. senators, and the results will shape control of the Senate and who runs these states in the 2028 presidential election.
Open seat · held by a Democrat (Gary Peters is retiring)
Why this race matters
The Senate seat Democrats can least afford to lose, in a state Donald Trump carried in 2024.
Republicans hold the Senate 53–47. Democrats need a net gain of four seats for a majority, which is out of reach if they lose an open seat they already hold.
Mike Rogers, a former chair of the House Intelligence Committee, lost Michigan's 2024 Senate race to Elissa Slotkin by about a third of a point. He is running again with Donald Trump's endorsement.
Abdul El-Sayed, a physician and former Detroit health director, won the Democratic primary from the party's progressive wing: a test of whether that message carries a state Trump won.
Open seat · held by a Republican (Thom Tillis is retiring)
Why this race matters
A top Democratic pickup chance: the only Republican-held open Senate seat in a swing state.
Without North Carolina, Democrats have almost no path to the four-seat net gain they need for a Senate majority.
Roy Cooper served two terms as governor (2017–2025) after four as attorney general: six statewide wins in a state Trump carried three times.
Michael Whatley, the former chair of the Republican National Committee, has Donald Trump's endorsement. Democrats have not won a Senate race in North Carolina since 2008.
A Democratic governor's veto against a Republican legislature, in the swing state Trump won by the most.
Katie Hobbs won in 2022 by about 17,000 votes, under one point. Since then her vetoes have been the main check on the Republican legislature.
Andy Biggs, a congressman and former chair of the House Freedom Caucus, is a close Trump ally. With a Republican legislature, a Biggs win could give the party full control of the state government.
The governor elected in 2026 will be in office for the 2028 presidential election, with a role in certifying Arizona's result.
Open seat · held by a Democrat (Gretchen Whitmer is term-limited)
Why this race matters
Michigan picks Gretchen Whitmer's successor, with a divided legislature waiting.
Jocelyn Benson, secretary of state since 2019, ran Michigan's 2020 and 2024 elections. John James, a congressman, lost Senate races in 2018 and 2020, the second by under two points.
Republicans won the state House in 2024 and Democrats hold the state Senate, which is also on this ballot: the governor's veto decides how much either side can pass.
Michigan has voted for the winner in every presidential election since 2008, and the governor elected now serves through the 2028 vote.
The only Republican governor in the swing states seeking reelection, facing a Democratic legislature.
Joe Lombardo unseated Democrat Steve Sisolak in 2022, the only governor to lose reelection that year. He has set Nevada records for vetoes against the Democratic legislature.
Aaron Ford, Nevada's attorney general since 2019, would be the state's first Black governor and could give Democrats full control in Carson City.
In 2024 Donald Trump became the first Republican to carry Nevada since 2004. This race tests whether that shift holds without him on the ballot.
The biggest prize among the swing states, and a governor watched as a 2028 presidential contender.
Josh Shapiro won in 2022 by almost 15 points. The size of his margin in a state Trump carried in 2024 will be read as a signal for 2028.
Stacy Garrity, the state treasurer, has won statewide twice, in 2020 and 2024. She would be Pennsylvania's first woman governor.
The legislature is split, a Democratic House and a Republican Senate, so the governor's signature or veto shapes the budget and the rules for the 2028 election.
Open seat · held by a Democrat (Tony Evers is not running)
Why this race matters
The closest state of 2024 chooses a new governor, the only check on a Republican legislature.
Wisconsin was decided by under one point in 2024, the narrowest margin of any state. Tony Evers is not seeking a third term.
Wisconsin governors have one of the strongest partial vetoes in the country. Evers has used his to block much of the Republican legislature's agenda.
David Crowley, the Milwaukee County executive, faces Tom Tiffany, a congressman from northern Wisconsin: the state's urban core against its rural north.
Open seat · held by a Republican (John Cornyn lost the primary to Ken Paxton)
Why this race matters
A Republican seat that became competitive when the party's primary voters chose Ken Paxton over a four-term senator.
Ken Paxton, Texas attorney general since 2015, defeated Senator John Cornyn in the Republican primary. In 2023 the Texas House impeached him; the state Senate acquitted him.
James Talarico, a state representative and former public-school teacher, is the Democratic nominee. Democrats have not won a Senate race in Texas since 1988.
Donald Trump carried Texas by almost 14 points in 2024. A Democratic win here would open a path to the four-seat net gain Democrats need for a majority.
The only Republican senator on the ballot in a state Kamala Harris won in 2024.
Susan Collins, in the Senate since 1997, is seeking a sixth term. In 2020 she trailed in most polls and won by almost nine points.
Troy Jackson, a logger and former president of the Maine Senate, is the Democratic nominee, running on labor and economic issues.
Maine counts federal general elections by ranked-choice voting: if no candidate wins a majority of first choices, the votes of the last-placed candidates are redistributed.
Chris Pappas · DemocratJohn E. Sununu · Republican
Open seat · held by a Democrat (Jeanne Shaheen is retiring)
Why this race matters
One of the few Democratic seats Republicans have a real chance to flip.
Jeanne Shaheen is retiring. Chris Pappas, a congressman since 2019, is the Democratic nominee.
John E. Sununu served one term in the Senate (2003–2009) before losing the seat to Shaheen in 2008. His family is a New Hampshire political name: his brother Chris was governor for eight years.
Kamala Harris won New Hampshire by under three points in 2024. A Republican gain here would make the Democratic path to a majority much harder.
Open seat · held by a Democrat (Tina Smith is retiring)
Why this race matters
An open Democratic seat in a state Republicans have not won in a Senate race since 2002.
Tina Smith is not seeking reelection. Peggy Flanagan, lieutenant governor since 2019 and a citizen of the White Earth Nation, would be the first Native American woman in the Senate.
Michele Tafoya, a former NBC and ESPN sportscaster, is the Republican nominee and a first-time candidate for office.
Kamala Harris won Minnesota by about four points in 2024. Democrats cannot afford to lose open seats while needing a net gain of four.
Pete Ricketts · RepublicanDan Osborn · Independent
Incumbent: Pete Ricketts (Republican)
Why this race matters
An independent challenger, with no Democrat in the race, against a Republican senator in a state Trump won by 20 points.
Dan Osborn, an industrial mechanic, Navy veteran and union leader, ran in 2024 as an independent and came within seven points of Senator Deb Fischer.
Pete Ricketts, governor from 2015 to 2023, was appointed to the Senate in 2023 and won the rest of the term in 2024. Other candidates are also on the ballot.
Osborn says he would not join either party's caucus. With the Senate at 53–47, one independent seat could matter in a close chamber.
Roger Marshall · RepublicanAdam Hamilton · Democrat
Incumbent: Roger Marshall (Republican)
Why this race matters
A first-term Republican senator in a state that has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1932.
Roger Marshall, a physician and former congressman, won the seat in 2020 by about 11 points. He is seeking a second term.
Adam Hamilton is the Democratic nominee. Kansas has elected Democratic governors, most recently Laura Kelly in 2018 and 2022, but no Democratic senator in more than 90 years.
Donald Trump won Kansas by 16 points in 2024. A close race here would be a sign of a wider Democratic year.
Incumbent: Ashley Moody (Republican), appointed in 2025
Why this race matters
A special election for the rest of Marco Rubio's term, in the third-largest state.
Ashley Moody, Florida's former attorney general, was appointed in January 2025 when Marco Rubio became secretary of state. The winner serves until the term ends in January 2029.
Angie Nixon, a state representative from Jacksonville, is the Democratic nominee.
Florida has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since Bill Nelson in 2012, and Trump won it by 13 points in 2024.
Open seat · held by a Democrat (Laura Kelly is term-limited)
Why this race matters
Democrats defend the governorship of a Republican state, the only check on a Republican supermajority.
Laura Kelly, a Democrat, won twice in a state Trump carried three times. She cannot run again.
Ty Masterson, president of the Kansas Senate, leads the supermajority that has overridden many of Kelly's vetoes. Cindy Holscher is a Democratic state senator.
A Masterson win would give Republicans full control of Kansas government for the first time since 2019.
Illustrations are editorial drawings, not a forecast. Where one candidate sits higher, it is the nominee of the party that holds the office now.
Questions and answers
What are the swing states in 2026?
The seven states that decided the 2024 presidential election by the narrowest margins: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Donald Trump carried all seven.
Which Senate races are in swing states in 2026?
Georgia (Jon Ossoff, a Democrat, seeking a second term), Michigan (an open Democratic seat) and North Carolina (an open Republican seat).
Which other Senate races could decide the majority?
Outside the swing states: Texas, Maine, Iowa, New Hampshire, Minnesota, Nebraska, Kansas, Florida and South Carolina.
When will results be available?
On election night, as each county and state election office publishes its returns. Until a race reports, it shows as not reported, never as zero; results stay unofficial until they are certified.
Cookies and privacy
We use Google Analytics cookies to count visits and see which pages are read, only if you agree. The site works fully without them. See the privacy policy.
Your browser sends a Global Privacy Control signal, so analytics stays off.
Get updates
Important updates only, by email or as a browser notification. Unsubscribe any time. See the privacy policy.
Michigan · U.S. Senate
